The logo of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seen at its headquarters in Washington, DC. Source: Tada Images - stock.adobe.com

Key Takeaways:

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have increased the estimated approval odds of a spot Ether ETF by the SEC from 25% to 75%.
The SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ether ETF is due by May 23, with other major firms’ applications also pending.
Recent developments include Grayscale’s withdrawal of an Ether futures ETF application and the resignation of its CEO, Michael Sonnenshein.

ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have increased their estimated odds of the SEC approving a spot Ether exchange-traded fund from 25% to 75%.

Two exchange-traded fund analysts are reconsidering the chances of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund, citing recent discussions about the financial regulator.

Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

In May 20 posts, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas suggested that the SEC might be “doing a 180” on their expected denial of spot Ether ETFs this week.

Previous filings, statements from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and investigation reports had indicated that the commission was likely to deny these applications.

However, Seyffart and Balchunas have now updated their prediction on the odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75%.

Seyffart hinted that the investment vehicle was becoming an “increasingly political issue.”

🚨 BIG BREAKING 🚨

U.S. SEC HAVE ASKED EXCHANGES
TO UPDATE 19B-4 FILINGS ON AN
ACCELERATED BASIS FOR SPOT
ETHER ETFS: COINDESK

MANY ARE PREDICTING ETH SPOT
ETF APPROVAL ODDS TO 75%.

THIS IS GIGA BULLISH 🔥
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) May 20, 2024

“Never gonna hear the end of this from the [Ether] people in my replies if this turns out to be true,” said Seyffart. “But it’s what we’re hearing from multiple sources. Should see a bunch of filings over coming days if we’re correct.”

The SEC must decide whether to approve or deny VanEck’s spot Ether ETF by May 23.

The commission has delayed VanEck’s application for as long as regulations permit, making it the first in a series of spot Ether ETFs under consideration, including those from ARK 21Shares, Hashdex, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity.

In an April 9 interview, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expressed doubt that the SEC would approve his company’s ETF application in May.

Additionally, Grayscale withdrew an application for an Ether futures ETF on May 7, and Michael Sonnenshein announced his resignation as CEO on May 20.

Recently, U.S. lawmakers voted to overturn an SEC rule affecting how the regulator treats banks dealing with companies holding assets.

[𝕏] Both Bloomberg Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart Raise Spot #Ether ETF Approval Odds to 75% Amid #SEC Shift Rumors$ETH pic.twitter.com/Z2ApVCiXyL
— BecauseBitcoin.com (@BecauseBitcoin) May 20, 2024

It remains uncertain whether President Joe Biden will veto the congressional resolution or sign it into law.