Key Takeaways:
- Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90% chance of SEC approval for a Litecoin ETF in 2025, surpassing approval odds for XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin ETFs.
- Analysts cite Litecoin’s commodity-like classification and existing SEC filings as factors supporting approval.
- Crypto ETF demand continues to rise, with $40.7B net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since early 2024, though Litecoin ETF inflows are expected to be modest.
Bloomberg ETF analysts predict a 90% chance that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025.
Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe Litecoin has better odds than other proposed crypto ETFs, such as those for XRP (65%), Solana (70%), and Dogecoin (75%).
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
They attribute Litecoin’s strong position to its similarity to Bitcoin, use of proof-of-work consensus, and likely classification as a commodity.
Key regulatory filings, including the S-1 and 19b-4 forms, have already been submitted and acknowledged by the SEC.
The push for more crypto ETFs follows significant demand for Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which have attracted net inflows of $40.7 billion and $3.18 billion, respectively, since early 2024.
While a Litecoin ETF is unlikely to generate similar demand, Seyffart believes it could still be valuable for fund issuers.
The SEC’s decision on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs is expected between October 2 and October 18, 2025, but a Litecoin ETF could launch earlier if approved.
More crypto ETF filings are expected as issuers take a “spaghetti cannon” approach, though only the most successful will survive.
Approval odds for all crypto ETFs except Litecoin remain low before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
About The Author
Adam Morris, the co-founder of Crypto Head and a respected crypto expert, offers insightful commentary and analysis on cryptocurrency, NFTs, and the evolving digital landscape.
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