Key Takeaways:
- NYDIG warns that the NAV premium of crypto treasury firms like Metaplanet and Strategy is compressing despite Bitcoin’s rise, driven by investor concerns and increased share issuance.
- Mergers, public offerings, and post-fundraising trading could trigger major sell-offs, with some firms already trading at or below recent raise valuations.
- Crypto treasury accumulation is slowing sharply, with Strategy’s monthly BTC growth rate dropping from 44% to 5% since late 2024.
An analyst from New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) has cautioned that digital asset treasury (DAT) firms could face mounting pressure as the premium between share prices and underlying Bitcoin holdings continues to shrink.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, explained that this compression stems from multiple factors, including investor concerns over supply unlocks, shifts in management strategy, higher share issuance, profit-taking, and a lack of differentiation among firms.
Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs, companies such as Metaplanet, Strategy, KindlyMD, and Twenty One Capital are experiencing valuations near or below net asset value (NAV).
Cipolaro warned that upcoming mergers or IPOs may trigger a wave of selling, urging firms to use share buybacks to stabilize prices.
Meanwhile, DATs collectively hold 840,000 BTC, though accumulation has slowed sharply. Strategy, the largest holder with 637,000 BTC, saw its average purchase size drop to 1,200 BTC in August, down from a 14,000 BTC peak earlier this year.
Overall, growth rates across treasury firms have cooled dramatically, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent pullback to around $111,200.
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