Bitcoin on a stack of coins with VanEck logo on a laptop screen. Source: 24K-Production - stock.adobe.com

Key Takeaways:

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel projects Bitcoin could reach $644,000 if it captures half of gold’s store-of-value market.
Younger and emerging market investors are increasingly favoring Bitcoin over gold, signaling a generational shift.
Structural trends and future supply cuts like the 2028 halving support Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

Bitcoin could reach an equivalent value of $644,000 if it captures half of gold’s store-of-value market, according to VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel.

Following gold’s rally to nearly $4,000 per ounce, Sigel noted that Bitcoin could mirror gold’s valuation dynamics, particularly as younger investors increasingly favor the cryptocurrency over traditional assets.

We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving. Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) October 7, 2025

VanEck’s model assumes that approximately half of gold’s $15 trillion market cap is tied to its store-of-value role, a segment where Bitcoin is gaining traction.

Sigel argues that shifting generational preferences, especially in emerging markets, are tilting demand in Bitcoin’s favor.

Bitcoin also made a new high today, trading above $126K. But it terms of gold, it's still about 15% below its record high. I still think it's too early for Bitcoiners to get excited about the rally. Until Bitcoin can make a new high priced in gold, it's just a bear market rally.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 6, 2025

While critics like Peter Schiff caution that Bitcoin remains below its previous peak when priced in gold terms, advocates say structural trends and upcoming supply reductions – such as the 2028 halving – strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term investment case.

Although this projection depends on macroeconomic stability and continued adoption, Sigel believes the recent surge in gold has made Bitcoin more appealing in relative terms, suggesting a growing appetite for digital stores of value in a transforming financial landscape.